Mackenzie Smith

The Thistleblower


Welcome to the Thistleblower – the last of the year

This time of year I try to figure out what the market has in store for us in the New Year.

There is no doubt this year’s market has been one of two halves (apologies for the football cliché). Entering 2014 there was no doubt we were going to be selling property quickly and for higher values. Very much a sellers’ market. The second half of the year has eased, through a combination of the mortgage market review, talking up of interest rates and I think a natural adjustment to ever increasing values which could not be sustained.

However, where popular opinion may have been that this easing was mainly driven by buyers taking a more cautious, considered approach, recognising values had stopped increasing; the reality is that it is vendors who have decided to sit tight and defer marketing their property until the New Year.

This process kicked in around the middle of September which is much earlier than normal and has seen the rate of property entering the market for this time of year reduce by about 50%. This puts a considerable strain on the market, in that those people who are thinking of selling, are discouraged from doing so as they can’t see any evidence of property they can buy! The classic ‘chicken and egg’ scenario.

What this proves is that whether prices are increasing, decreasing or remaining stable, what the market needs first and foremost are sellers. A healthy supply of property gives people the confidence to think about moving which in turn creates more supply. Of course every market needs buyers but without property to buy you can have all the buyers you need but you won’t get very far.

The government’s initiative on Stamp Duty Land Tax is to be welcomed. This is a big improvement on the previous unfair system of penalising buyers at certain price ranges in the market. Pressure for new homes continues and it’s good to see planning permissions coming through to deliver much needed housing for the area either for first time buyers or those looking to trade up to a larger home. Anything that can improve the supply of property has to be welcomed.

There will be more property coming to the market in the New Year; the question is will the number of properties coming to the market increase or remain the same that we’ve seen over the last five years or so? What we do know is that there is a strong underlying group of people who want to buy and I don’t think this is going to change.

A very big thank you to all our clients for favouring Mackenzie Smith with your business this year and our best wishes for Christmas and the New Year.

Ed Mackenzie Smith, Managing Director



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